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Democrats Will Probably Retake the Senate...if They Win the Presidency

By Matthew Chen November 8, 2016

Today's the final day! Yesterday, we issued our final prediction for the presidential election, and today we're doing the same for the Senate.

Democrats have a reasonably good chance to retake the senate, especially if they win the states we project as being tightest: New Hampshire and Nevada. However, they'll probably only have a net gain of four seats after the election, meaning that the Vice President will likely be needed to break ties in the Senate. Since we project that the next Vice President will be Democrat Tim Kaine with an 86% probability, our final prediction shows the Democrats having a 45% chance of winning the Senate outright, and a 22% chance of winning the Senate via a Tim Kaine tiebreaker, for a total probability of 67%.

Like in years past, we'll write a recap post after the election, detailing where we went right and where we went wrong - hopefully, there's more of the former than the latter.

Thank you for reading Stanford Predicts, and go vote!