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Trump Now Has a 13% Chance of Victory

By John Arcibal and Matthew Chen November 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton's chances of becoming president have continued to fall in the wake of the letter to Congress written by FBI Director James Comey. As of today, our model gives her an 87% chance of winning the presidency, with the likeliest outcome being that she'll win 298 electoral votes. The most likely electoral map in that case would look something like this:

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However, because our model assigns only a 5% chance to Clinton winning 298 electoral votes, we can be reasonably certain that the electoral map will not look exactly like that; it will probably look similarly, however.

New polls are still coming out; check back tomorrow for a new post incorporating them!